It may be premature for investors to unbuckle their seatbelts.
Even though stocks rallied on the Trump administration’s decision Tuesday to delay a new round of China tariffs until mid-December, Cresset Capital’s Jack Ablin expects the trade tensions to create more danger and volatility deep into 2020.
“I’m not too hopeful about a trade deal,” said the firm’s chief investment officer on CNBC’s “Futures Now. ” “This is really the competition for dominance in technology and life sciences. … Fundamentally, I believe these two governments are pretty far apart.”
Ablin, who has $5.7 billion in assets under management, credits President Donald Trump’s decision to “blink” with China as the catalyst for the renewed market optimism.
“What it does suggest is that President Trump and his administration used the S&P 500 as a barometer of their policy success,” said Ablin, who believes investors could take comfort in knowing the president will step back from the trade war on bearish market activity.
Before the sharp comeback, the S&P was off 5% from its all-time high hit on July 26.
On Wednesday, stock futures turned lower after a key yield-curve inversion. Yields on the 2-year yield Treasury topped the 10-year rate, triggering a reliable warning of recession within 22 months.
Ablin on Tuesday suggested that a renewed run back to record levels will fizzle. His S&P 500 year-end price target is 3,000 — 27 points below the index’s all-time high. And, he’s not inclined to alter it.
“My guess is that Trump is just trying to bunt his way to the election — making sure that he’s reinstated,” Ablin said. “Once he has that, he’ll have a little more leverage to perhaps get tough.”